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Tesla Outlines Optimus Production Goals, Musk Says Current Robot 'Far From Final Form'

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Illustration of Tesla Optimus dancing ballet

Tesla Optimus: Ambitious Production Targets Emerge Amidst Ongoing Development

Recent updates from Tesla, including details shared during a session with Morgan Stanley analysts, shed more light on the company's ambitious plans for its Optimus humanoid robot. While some initial reports on production capacity were quickly clarified by CEO Elon Musk, the long-term vision remains expansive, targeting mass production and a significant role for the robot in the future.

Production Ramps and Timelines

Tesla is currently capable of manually producing Optimus robots "a dozen or so at a time" on the second floor of its Fremont factory, according to information shared with Morgan Stanley clients. While an initial report suggested a second Optimus manufacturing line at Fremont was already capable of building 1,000 units per month, Elon Musk refuted this on X (formerly Twitter), stating, "Not correct. We are building a production line to enable 1000/month Optimus production, but that is still many months away."

Despite this clarification, Tesla maintains its goal of producing "several thousand" Optimus units by the end of this year. Looking further ahead, the company is targeting a second-generation production line capable of 10,000 units per month, with a third-generation line aiming for a tenfold increase to 100,000 units per month. Tesla reportedly hopes to offer investors tours of low-scale manufacturing facilities by the fourth quarter of 2025, with potential commercialization of Optimus beginning by mid-2026. The target cost for an Optimus unit is cited as $20,000.

Evolving Form and Capabilities

Even as production plans solidify, Musk has indicated that the current iteration of Optimus, known as Gen 2, is "very far from its planned final form." This statement came after recent demonstrations showcased Optimus performing dance moves, including ballet, which Tesla’s VP of Optimus, Milan Kovac, stated were fully learned in simulation and zero-shot transferred to the physical robot without additional real-world training. Optimus units are reportedly already walking around Tesla factories and charging themselves as needed.

To fuel this development, Tesla is actively recruiting Data Collection Operators. These roles involve wearing motion capture suits and VR headsets to perform specific movements and gather data to refine Optimus's capabilities. The job requires significant physical endurance, including walking over seven hours daily while carrying up to 30 pounds, and comfort with extended VR use. Tesla notes that the neural networks for Optimus are "far larger" than those used for its vehicles due to the more open-ended nature of tasks a humanoid robot might perform.

AI Infrastructure and Future Potential

Underpinning Optimus's intelligence will be Tesla's AI infrastructure, with plans for Dojo 2 supercomputers expected in 2026 and Dojo 3 in 2028. The company believes that significant advancements in AI and reductions in cost are crucial for Optimus to unlock its full potential. Morgan Stanley analysts have previously projected a potential $5 trillion market for humanoid robots by mid-century.

While Tesla's ambitions for Optimus are clear, the path to mass production and widespread deployment involves overcoming significant engineering and AI challenges. The company's iterative approach, demonstrated by its vehicle development, appears to be mirrored in its robotics division, with ongoing refinements expected even as initial production begins.


The Tesla job listing can be found here

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