Goldman Sachs: Chinese Suppliers Aggressively Building Humanoid Robot Capacity Ahead of Orders

A new field research report from Goldman Sachs indicates that key players in China's humanoid robot supply chain are making significant, "preemptive" investments in production capacity, betting heavily on a mass-production tipping point in the second half of 2026.

The report, based on surveys with nine Chinese supply chain companies including Sanhua and Tuopu Group between November 3 and 6, 2025, reveals a "capacity-first" strategy. Suppliers are actively planning for annual production capacities ranging from 100,000 to 1 million robot-equivalent units.

This aggressive planning comes despite the fact that, according to the report, no company has confirmed receiving large-scale orders or a clear production timeline.

A High-Stakes 'Confidence Game'

The suppliers' strategy represents a high-stakes gamble on future demand from major robotics clients like Tesla, XPeng, Zhiyuan (AgiBot), and Leju Robot. By investing in land, factories, and production lines now, they are demonstrating strong confidence in an anticipated demand explosion.

However, this "capacity-first" approach carries the significant risk of idle capacity if orders fail to materialize as expected. The report notes this planned capacity appears highly aggressive, especially when contrasted with Goldman Sachs' own forecast, which projects global humanoid robot shipments to reach 1.38 million units by 2035.

To mitigate immediate risks, most suppliers are reportedly adopting a "gradual ramp-up" strategy, intending to scale production lines based on the actual placement of orders.

From Auto Parts to Robot Modules

The report highlights a significant evolution in the value chain. Suppliers are shifting from manufacturing single components to providing integrated, modular solutions that combine actuators, sensors, and structural parts. This move suggests value in the industry is consolidating among upstream suppliers who can offer complete systems.

A notable trend is the deep involvement of the automotive industry. Many of these companies, such as Minth Group, are leveraging their existing expertise in precision manufacturing and automated production lines from the auto sector. They view robotics as a "second growth curve," applying their existing technologies—like precision forming and optical coatings—to new applications in robot components.

These suppliers are emphasizing "China speed," or the ability to move from design to product rapidly, as a core competitive advantage to secure their position in the emerging supply chain.

All Eyes on 2026 Milestones

The industry consensus is fixed on the second half of 2026 as the inflection point for mass production. According to Goldman Sachs, the market is now watching for two critical events that will serve as "litmus tests" for this optimism:

1. Tesla's Optimus Gen 3: The unveiling of Tesla's third-generation humanoid robot, anticipated in February or March 2026, is seen as a key technical and commercial validator.
2. 2026 Order Targets: The announcement of 2026 order and shipment targets by global humanoid robot companies, expected by late 2025 or early 2026.

These events will be crucial in determining whether the supply chain's current, tangible investments will translate into actual orders or if the industry's optimism has outpaced reality.