Goldman Sachs: China's Humanoid Strategy Pivots to "Dedicated" Service Robots and Entertainment

While the long-term promise of humanoid robotics is a general-purpose machine capable of doing anything a human can, a new analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests the path to get there will be paved with "dedicated purpose" robots designed for spectacle, service, and entertainment.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Jacqueline Du, Head of China Industrial Tech Research at Goldman Sachs, outlined a pragmatic roadmap for the Chinese robotics sector. She argued that before robots are ready for the complexity of unstructured households or precision manufacturing, they will find a niche as "shopping guides, tour guides, and exhibition guides"—roles where the "futuristic sense" of the hardware is as valuable as the labor it performs.

This analysis aligns with a shift we have tracked across the industry in recent months, where companies like Xpeng and UBTech are prioritizing deployment in retail and public spaces over the factory floor.

The Era of "Dedicated Purpose" Robots

Du’s comments suggest that the industry is entering a transitional phase. While the "general purpose" robot remains the ultimate goal for investors, the technology is not yet mature enough to handle that level of versatility.

"We have to recognize that it still takes a longer time to really make a robot highly useful," Du said. "But before that, there's still a market for it."

She specifically cited the strategy of Xpeng, which recently detailed plans to deploy its "Iron" robot as a retail assistant and tour guide rather than a home cleaner. According to Du, the value proposition in these near-term scenarios is experiential rather than purely functional.

This shift was underscored this week by UBTECH, which secured a 264 million yuan (approx. $37 million) contract to deploy robots at the China-Vietnam border in Fangchenggang. These units will handle traveler guidance and patrol duties, moving beyond the factory floor into the exact kind of "dedicated" public service roles Du predicts will characterize the next phase of the market.

"For humanoid robot in industry, we don't necessarily need a human-like robot," Du explained. "But a human shape actually gives you a new experience, a futuristic sense... so you can imagine those types of demands will likely happen."

The 1 Million Unit Bet

Despite the nascent state of the applications, the supply chain is betting heavily on a volume explosion.

Reiterating data from a recent Goldman Sachs field report, Du noted that Chinese suppliers are "very optimistic" and are actively planning for capacities ranging from 100,000 to 1 million units.

UBTECH provided concrete evidence of this ramp-up on Tuesday, announcing plans to increase production ten-fold to 5,000 units in 2026. The company aims to reach an annual output of 10,000 units by 2027, driven by a supply chain that is now "90 per cent" localized.

When pressed on whether this constitutes a bubble—a concern recently voiced by Beijing's economic planners—Du argued it is too early to call it "oversupply" because the "effective supply" has not yet begun.

"The supply chain is taking this forward-looking view to prepare the capacity and waiting for the orders to kick in," she said.

The Silicon Dependence Paradox

Perhaps the most critical vulnerability identified in the interview is the Chinese sector's reliance on American compute.

While Chinese manufacturers are rapidly scaling the production of actuators, joints, and batteries, the "brains" of these machines are largely imported. Du observed that during her visits to multiple startups, she saw a "very high reliance" on U.S. chips, specifically citing Nvidia and its Jetson Thor platform as the standard solution for most startups.

"At the moment... [chip] volume is probably not so imminent," Du noted, but suggested that as the market scales, the economic pressure for Chinese companies to develop self-sufficient silicon will grow.

This reliance presents a complex dynamic for the sector. While China may hold the advantage in manufacturing speed and "dedicated" application deployment, the fundamental intelligence of its robot army is, for now, running on American architecture.

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Watch the segment here.